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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          11/14 12:13

   Down Wednesday & Undecided Thursday 

   Live cattle contracts and feeder cattle contracts are starting to rebound 
from Wednesday 's hasty setback, but lean hog contracts aren't jumping on the 
band wagon just yet. 

By ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

General Comments

   Feeder cattle contracts led the complex lower Wednesday and now are rallying 
and motivating live cattle contracts to do the same -- lean hog contracts, as 
of noon, aren't too sure about rebounding though. December corn is up 3/4 cent 
per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial 
Average is down 73.07 points and NASDAQ is down 30.79 points. 


   Live cattle contracts are the most unsure of where to land Thursday morning. 
Feeder cattle contracts shoot higher, lean hog contracts keep their bearish 
whistle of lower and live cattle contracts are across the board. Higher, and 
then lower, then to evenly mixed live cattle contracts jump around. December 
live cattle are up $0.35 at $118.45, February live cattle are up $0.22 at 
$124.32 and April live cattle are up $0.02 at $125.70. 

   Cash cattle have yet to really trade and set the week's tone, though there 
have been dressed cattle sold in eastern Nebraska for $182 with delayed 
delivery until 12/02/19. Bids of $115 are surfacing in Nebraska and Colorado. 
If feeders feel as if the downward pressure is here to stay and that the board 
is going to continue to erode into next week and potentially beyond -- cash 
cattle trade could get underway this afternoon. If feeders feel as if they 
still hold enough leverage and can push trade until sometime Friday, they may 
let packers sit on their bids another day and let the board stabilize. 

   Midday boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.13 ($242.21) and select 
down $1.67 ($215.86) with a movement of 52 loads (31.34 loads of choice, 10.73 
loads of select, 4.91 loads of trim and 5.04 loads of ground beef). 


   Feeder cattle contracts have taken it upon themselves in the last couple of 
days to shake things up. First feeder cattle markets led the entire livestock 
complex lower on Wednesday, and now the feeder cattle contracts are all 
rallying in both nearby and deferred months. November feeder cattle are up 
$1.02 at $146.60, January feeder cattle are up $1.12 at $143.95 and March 
feeders are up $0.55 at $143.82.


   News circulates Thursday morning that new cases of African swine fever have 
set into some Eastern European countries. The World Organization for Animal 
Health announced that a new case has been reported in Moldova. The headline did 
mention that the disease has been present in parts of Hungary and Romania since 
at least 2018. 

   Unlike the rest of the livestock complex, lean hog futures aren't ready to 
bounce back and rally just yet. December lean hogs are down $0.12 at $63.00, 
February lean hogs are down $1.07 at $73.47 and April lean hogs are down $1.35 
at $80.40. It wouldn't be unlikely to see the lean hog complex keep this steady 
to slightly downward trade throughout the rest of the day. The projected lean 
hog index for 11/12/19 is up $0.61 at $59.55, and the actual index for 11/11/19 
came in down $0.50 at $58.94. Prices on the National Direct Hog Report are up 
$0.29 with a weighted average of $42.53, ranging from $40.00 to $44.99 on 5,814 
head sold and a five-day average of $43.12. Pork cutouts totaled 180.02 loads 
with 164.08 loads of pork cuts and 15.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are 
down $0.66 at $86.36. 

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached 


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